Opinion polls

Various polls have been conducted by different organizations, all of which show inconsistencies and different results.

Based on figures being quoted in newspapers and articles, Pakistan Muslim League (N) looks set to get at least 125 seats general seats which means that by taking on allies in the form of 10FATA seats and close to 12 seats from the KPK, PML-N would have the numbers to form a central government single handedly. At provincial levels,Punjab is locked up, in KPK PML-N can take the JUI-F on board and form a coalition while Balochistan is nearly always independents who ally with the Federal Government.^[52]

In March 2013, a survey by Heinrich Böll Foundation showed that 29 per cent of the people surveyed would support the Pakistan Peoples Party, the highest nummain opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League (N), led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Another 20 per cent supported thePakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by former cricketer Imran Khan.^[53]

According to a survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan and PILDAT the Pakistan Muslim League (N) tops the list on voting intention score in Punjab, followed by the PTI and the PPP respectively. The February 2013 political forecast is based on a nationwide poll of approximately 9660 voters in 300 villages and urban localities. The voting intention score of PML-N stands at 63% in North and Central Punjab, 69% in Western Punjab and 49% in Southern Punjab, shows the survey. According to the consolidated findings of two nationwide polls on voting intentions, conducted by IRI and Gallup Pakistan respectively during past three months, the front runner in Pakistan’s elections scheduled in mid-2013 is the PML-N. The PTI, according to the survey, is making deep inroads in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa where it has surpassed every other player by a 30 per cent score.^[54]

“	"Pakistan Peoples Party to emerge victorious on basis of performance."	”
—Qamar Zaman Kaira, 2013

In January 2013, an online poll conducted by Public Judgement showed that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf would win 66.1% of the total seats with PML-N coming in second place with 29.3% of seats. This would translate as PTI winning an outright majority of 225 seats in parliament. The online poll took place over 16 days and a total of 17,013 people participated in the poll.^[55]

PTI Chairman Imran Khan acknowledges sharp slide in his party’s popularity but attributes it to the party’s preoccupation with a gigantic task of intra-party elections. It took about 10 months during which the PTI almost suspended its activities. Imran is confident that the PTI will rebound soon for which a series of rallies has been planned beginning with Peshawar on March 10 on conclusion of elections for the Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (KP). On March 23, a massive rally is planned in Lahore which will also be attended by about 80,000 elected members at union council level across the country.

Senior Pakistani Political analyst Najam Sethi said, Nawaz Sharif held public meetings and rallies in every nook and corner of the country whileShahbaz Sharif completed development projects in Punjab which attracted politicians from the other parties. Sethi said that the three percent raise in the popularity graph of the Pakistan People’s Party was made possible due to Asif Ali Zardari’s efforts who gathered many such politicians as used to oppose him. He said the popularity of both the parties increased due to the revival of the traditional politics and the same was the cause of decrease in popularity of unorthodox politicians like Imran Khan. However, Imran Khan’s next public meetings would help him a lot, Sethi predicted, saying that the PTI leader’s graph would go up after public rallies in Lahore and Peshawar and the party would play an important role in formation of the next government.^[56]